Daraasado ku saabsan Sannadaha Doorashada iyo Soo Celinta Suuqa
Jadwalka hoose ee bogga wuxuu muujinayaa soo noqoshada S & P 500 Index sanadka doorashooyinka tan iyo 1928-dii. Aragtida, waxaad arki kartaa in 21kii sanno ee ugu dambeeyay doorashadu ay jirtay 3 sano oo kaliya halka S & P 500 index ay leeyihiin celinta diidmada muddada doorashada.
Marshall D. Nickles, EdD, waxay ku kordhisay xogtan waraaqo la yiraahdo Doorashooyinka Madaxtooyada iyo Suuqa Suuqa. Cilmi-baaris faahfaahsan ayaa muujinaya in istaraatijiyad faa'iido leh ay noqon doonto maal-galinta Oktoobar 1-aad ee sanadka labaad ee xilliga madaxweynanimada oo iibiya 31-ka December ee sanadka. Ka dib markii la geliyo xogta si ay u taageeraan istraatijiyadaan, wuxuu ku sii jeedaa:
"Si kastaba ha noqotee, marka aad u maleyneyso in aad ka soo baxday dhamaanteed, waxaad arki kartaa qaab kale oo soo jeedin kara fursado kala duwan. Tusaale ahaan, falanqayn kale ayaa muujinaya dib-u-dhac aad u xiiso leh oo muujinaya muujinta suuqa saamiyada. Dhamaadkii qarnigii labaatanaad, mid kasta oo tobaneeyo sano ah oo dhammaaday sanadka "5" (1905, 1915, 1925, iwm.) Wuxuu ahaa mid faa'iido leh! "
Qodobka uu samaynayo waa isku mid ah in daraasadda daraasadda lagu magacaabo dhaqaalaha dhaqanka uu marar badan noo soo sheego; waxaa laga yaabaa in aan aragno astaamo, laakiin taasi micnaheedu ma ahan inay ku habboon yihiin go'aamada aan sameyneyno.
Daraasaddan oo la mid ah Marshall, Sarkaalka Maalgelinta ee Wells Fargo, Dean A. Junkans, CFA, iyo Maamulaha Maalgashiga Sare, James P. Estes, PhD, CFP (1) ayaa muujinaya in celceliska sicirka suuqa soo gala sannadkii afraad ee madaxweynaha Waqtiguna waa laba jeer oo ka mid ah soo noqoshada sanadka ugu horeeya ee muddada madaxweynaha.
Macluumaadkani miyay faa'iideystaan? Kaliya haddii qaabku sii socdo.
Haddii aad raadinayso qaab, sababta aadan u tijaabin Super Bowl Stock Market Predictor. "Hadii kooxdii ku guuleysatay Super Bowl waxay leedahay xidigaha asalka ah ee National Football League, suuqyada ayaa kor u qaadi doona, hadii kooxdii guuleysata ay asal ahaan ka soo jeedo Old American Football League, suuqa ayaa hoos u dhici doona."
Haddii aad go'aamiso go'aanada ku saleysan Sannadka Doorashada Suuqa?
U sheeg in aad qabatay lataliye maalgashi oo aqoon u leh daraasadaha kor ku xusan. Waxay ku tusayaan dib u soo noqoshada aad soo martay 20-kii sanno ee la soo dhaafay haddii aad soo gashay suuqa saamiyada inta lagu guda jiro sannadihii dambe ee madaxweynenimo oo ka baxayay sanadaha hore.
Siyaabaha, istaraatiijiyadan la-taliyaha ayaa macquul ah. Waxaa laga yaabaa inaad xitaa heshay rajo ah in sanadka 2008, suuqu waa inuu laba jeer soo celiyaa 2005-kii. (Sannadkii 2005 S & P 500 Index ayaa soo celiyay 4.90%.)
Inta lagu gudajiro wareegga doorashooyinka ee 2008, haddii aad maalgashatay Oktoobar 1 2006, illaa Diseembar 31-keedii 2008, maal-galintaada waxay hoos u dhigi lahayd 6.8%.
Tilmaamku ma shaqeynin wareeggii doorashadii 2008-dii. Waxay u egtahay 2016 sidii ay u wanaagsanayd! Oktoobar 1, 2015, illaa iyo sannadka 2016-ka wuxuu u soo jeestay inuu soo celiyo si wanaagsan.
Waa maxay dukaanka sannadka 2020? Qiyaastaadu waa sida ugu fiican aniga.
Dhibaatada ku jirta maalgelinta ku salaysan qaababka xogta: ma aha habka ugu wanaagsan ee lagu go'aamin karo go'aamada maalgashiga. Waxay u muuqataa mid xiiso leh, waxana ay fulisaa caqiidada qoto dheer ee ay dad badani haystaan in ay jirto hab lagu yareeyo suuqa ", qofkuna halkaas wuu garanayaa sida loo sameeyo.
Haddii aysan taasi ahayn, waxa laga yaabaa inay ka fiicnaato maalgashiga caajisnimada, habka nabdoon, taas oo ku lug leh fahamka khatarta iyo soo noqoshada , kala duwanaanta, iyo iibsashada miisaaniyadaha kharashka hooseeya si ay u yeeshaan muddada fog, iyada oo aan loo eegin cidda ku guulaysata doorashada. Ama sida lagu soo xigtay maalgashiga ku saabsan maalgashiga, "Maalgelinta waa inay noqotaa sida daawashada rinjiga qalalan ama daawashada cawska. Haddaad rabto farxad ... tag Las Vegas. "-Paul Samuelson
(1) Doorashooyinka iyo suuqa: miyuu la xiriiri karaa? Waxaa la daabacay Oktoobar 18, 2007, oo ku taala Wells Fargo Quick Market Update.
Qoraal by Dean A. Junkans, CFA, Sarkaalka Maalgelinta Maalgelinta iyo James P Estes, Ph.D., CFP, Maamulaha Maalgashiga Sare.
Doorashada Sannadka Doorashada Suuqa
Sannadka doorashooyinka suuqyada doorashooyinka laga soo bilaabo 1900 waxay eegaan PDF-ka la soo rogi karo oo ay wadaagaan MFS® Maareynta Maalgashiga oo la yiraahdo Primaries, gudiyada, iyo doorashooyinka ... oh , my!
Shaxda hoose waxay muujineysaa soo celinta suuqyada ee sanadka doorasho kasta tan iyo 1928
Xogta hoos ku xusan waxay ka timid buugga Matrix ee Matrix.
| S & P 500 Soo Celinta Suuqa Inta lagu jiro Doorashada Sanadka | ||
| Sannad | Soo noqo | Musharrixiinta |
| 1928 | 43.6% | Hoover iyo Smith |
| 1932 | -8.2% | Roosevelt iyo Hoover |
| 1936 | 33.9% | Roosevelt iyo Landon |
| 1940 | -9.8% | Roosevelt iyo Willkie |
| 1944 | 19.7% | Roosevelt iyo Dewey |
| 1948 | 5.5% | Truman vs. Dewey |
| 1952 | 18.4% | Eisenhower iyo Stevenson |
| 1956 | 6.6% | Eisenhower iyo Stevenson |
| 1960 | .50% | Kennedy iyo Nixon |
| 1964 | 16.5% | Johnson iyo Goldwater |
| 1968 | 11.1% | Nixon iyo Humphrey |
| 1972 | 19.0% | Nixon iyo McGovern |
| 1976 | 23.8% | Carter vs. Ford |
| 1980 | 32.4% | Reagan iyo Carter |
| 1984 | 6.3% | Reagan iyo Mondal |
| 1988 | 16.8% | Bush iyo Dukakis |
| 1992 | 7.6% | Clinton iyo Bush |
| 1996 | 23% | Clinton iyo Dole |
| 2000 | -9.1% | Bush vs Gore |
| 2004 | 10.9% | Bush iyo Kerry |
| 2008 | -37% | Obama iyo McCain |
| 2012 | 16% | Obama iyo Romney |
| 2016 | ++ | Trump iyo Clinton |
| 2020 | ? | ? |